Ole Rikard Hammer, an oil and shipping analyst at Arctic Securities, based in Oslo, said that the isolation of India may become a major disruptive factor hindering the normal operation of the global logistics supply chain, not only causing delays in shipping schedules, but also tightening tanker capacity. .
Since there are multiple ports that do not allow those ships that have called at Indian ports in the past 14 days to change crews, although the voyage from India to other major ports in Asia is less than two weeks, these ships must wait several days before they can enter the next port of call. Refueling, loading, unloading, changing crew, daily maintenance of docking, etc.
Several shipping people in Asia and Europe have stated that the daily revenue of ships will be affected, and this impact can only be offset by increasing the freight rates of Indian routes.
Ralph Leszczynski, head of research at Banchero Costa, a shipping brokerage and consulting company based in Genoa, said that as the North Asian refinery is still in the maintenance season, Indian refineries may increase their exports during this period, especially to Southeast Asia and Australia. , Which will help revive the demand for oil tankers.
So far, the capacity utilization rate of Indian refineries is still very high. According to the latest government data, the average operating rate of various refineries in India rose to 99% in March. A source at an Indian refinery said that for the week ending May 8, the operating rate was still around 90%-95%, and there is currently no plan to reduce the operating rate.
According to the data of the Indian Ports Association, between April 2020 and March 2021, the throughput of Indian ports fell 4.59% year-on-year to 672.6 million tons. India said that if a nationwide blockade is implemented, port throughput will further decline.
In terms of fuel, sources said that the epidemic has not yet had a major impact. Compared with other petroleum products, fuel demand has been tepid. At present, shipowners have begun arranging ships that originally refueled at Indian ports to go to international public waters, and try to avoid berthing at Indian ports to reduce the risk of infection.
In the first week of May, the Mumbai fuel market was operating normally. Fuel prices in Mumbai are still more competitive than those in Colombo, which indicates that the country has an adequate supply of products. Platts Energy data shows that the average price of 0.5% sulfur content marine fuel provided by Colombo in April was US$555.21/ton, while the average price of Mumbai during the same period was US$535.17/ton.
